Strength of Regions AAA. Crunched the numbers

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mike.carman
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Joined: Wed Mar 12, 2014 3:24 pm
Location: Marshall County

Strength of Regions AAA. Crunched the numbers

Postby mike.carman » Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:46 am

A while back everyone was in a snit about the re-alignment of the regions, so I did some number crunching on the subject and noticed something very interesting.
Here is a breakdown of all placers for each grade by region
Region 1
Freshmen: 5% Sophomores: 11% Juniors: 6% Senior: 7%
Region 2
Freshmen: 2% Sophomores: 1% Juniors: 4% Senior: 5%
Region 3
Freshmen: 1% Sophomores: 4% Juniors: 5% Senior: 7%
Region 4
Freshmen: 5% Sophomores: 13% Juniors: 14% Senior: 11%

If you notice, yes region 4 for Juniors and Seniors shows a definite gap in strength as opposed to all other regions, no dispute there. However, once you get to Sophomores and Freshmen, the numbers start to equal out between Region 1 and Region 4 and Regions 2 and 3 stay consistent. I would be interested in seeing how these numbers change from year to year moving forward and see if there will indeed be a balance of power in a few years. As of right now it looks like this years Sophomores and Juniors from Regions 1 and 4 are pretty equal

Gator
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Location: South Parkersburg-Moderator WV Mat

Re: Strength of Regions AAA. Crunched the numbers

Postby Gator » Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:57 am

mike.carman wrote:A while back everyone was in a snit about the re-alignment of the regions, so I did some number crunching on the subject and noticed something very interesting.
Here is a breakdown of all placers for each grade by region
Region 1
Freshmen: 5% Sophomores: 11% Juniors: 6% Senior: 7%
Region 2
Freshmen: 2% Sophomores: 1% Juniors: 4% Senior: 5%
Region 3
Freshmen: 1% Sophomores: 4% Juniors: 5% Senior: 7%
Region 4
Freshmen: 5% Sophomores: 13% Juniors: 14% Senior: 11%

If you notice, yes region 4 for Juniors and Seniors shows a definite gap in strength as opposed to all other regions, no dispute there. However, once you get to Sophomores and Freshmen, the numbers start to equal out between Region 1 and Region 4 and Regions 2 and 3 stay consistent. I would be interested in seeing how these numbers change from year to year moving forward and see if there will indeed be a balance of power in a few years. As of right now it looks like this years Sophomores and Juniors from Regions 1 and 4 are pretty equal


Good stuff Mike! There is a big gap between Region 1 and 4 and Regions 2 and 3 however. It is still out of balance in that regard. I think most people still believe that region 1 is strong along with 4.
Moderator WV Mat

mscoach4
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Re: Strength of Regions AAA. Crunched the numbers

Postby mscoach4 » Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:35 pm

If you look at points scored by region at the AAA 2017 state tourney
region 4 = 761.5 points
region 1 = 394.5 points
region 3 = 328 points
region 2 = 231 points

mike.carman
Posts: 192
Joined: Wed Mar 12, 2014 3:24 pm
Location: Marshall County

Re: Strength of Regions AAA. Crunched the numbers

Postby mike.carman » Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:11 pm

mscoach4 wrote:If you look at points scored by region at the AAA 2017 state tourney
region 4 = 761.5 points
region 1 = 394.5 points
region 3 = 328 points
region 2 = 231 points


If you follow the trend though. As the Juniors and Seniors graduate out, these points should re-adjust and the younger wrestlers will place higher earning more points and thereby equaling out the points.
59% of all the placers at the state tournament were Juniors and Seniors.

So if we break the numbers down this way it looks like this:
FR-SO
Region 1: 15%
Region 2: 4%
Region 3: 5%
Region 5: 18%

JR-SR
Region 1: 13%
Region 2: 8%
Region 3: 12%
Region 4: 25%

Also breaking it down by grade level
FR:13% overall
SO:29% overall
JR:29% overall
SR:30% overall

Since the placing FR and SO class are of another region and 30% of the placers from last year won't be wrestling in the tournament, we can reason that the scores won't be lopsided this year as they were last year.

In every region accept Region 1 there is a decline. Regions 2-4 experience a 4-7 point drop in placers for the younger ages. Region 1 went up by 2 points. Only time will tell, but from watching the youth wrestlers for as many years as I have and knowing what is coming into the High Schools, I would venture to say that the next few years are going to be pretty exciting.

mike.carman
Posts: 192
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Location: Marshall County

Re: Strength of Regions AAA. Crunched the numbers

Postby mike.carman » Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:24 pm

Gator wrote:
mike.carman wrote:A while back everyone was in a snit about the re-alignment of the regions, so I did some number crunching on the subject and noticed something very interesting.
Here is a breakdown of all placers for each grade by region
Region 1
Freshmen: 5% Sophomores: 11% Juniors: 6% Senior: 7%
Region 2
Freshmen: 2% Sophomores: 1% Juniors: 4% Senior: 5%
Region 3
Freshmen: 1% Sophomores: 4% Juniors: 5% Senior: 7%
Region 4
Freshmen: 5% Sophomores: 13% Juniors: 14% Senior: 11%

If you notice, yes region 4 for Juniors and Seniors shows a definite gap in strength as opposed to all other regions, no dispute there. However, once you get to Sophomores and Freshmen, the numbers start to equal out between Region 1 and Region 4 and Regions 2 and 3 stay consistent. I would be interested in seeing how these numbers change from year to year moving forward and see if there will indeed be a balance of power in a few years. As of right now it looks like this years Sophomores and Juniors from Regions 1 and 4 are pretty equal


Good stuff Mike! There is a big gap between Region 1 and 4 and Regions 2 and 3 however. It is still out of balance in that regard. I think most people still believe that region 1 is strong along with 4.


Thanks Gator! I'm a data junkie so I decided to have some fun with it. Quite frankly, it has always been out of balance but I think it might actually get more balanced this way as time goes on.

Bearhugger
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Joined: Tue Dec 25, 2012 12:14 am

Re: Strength of Regions AAA. Crunched the numbers

Postby Bearhugger » Mon Oct 09, 2017 4:37 pm

mike.carman wrote:A while back everyone was in a snit about the re-alignment of the regions, so I did some number crunching on the subject and noticed something very interesting.
Here is a breakdown of all placers for each grade by region
Region 1
Freshmen: 5% Sophomores: 11% Juniors: 6% Senior: 7%
Region 2
Freshmen: 2% Sophomores: 1% Juniors: 4% Senior: 5%
Region 3
Freshmen: 1% Sophomores: 4% Juniors: 5% Senior: 7%
Region 4
Freshmen: 5% Sophomores: 13% Juniors: 14% Senior: 11%

If you notice, yes region 4 for Juniors and Seniors shows a definite gap in strength as opposed to all other regions, no dispute there. However, once you get to Sophomores and Freshmen, the numbers start to equal out between Region 1 and Region 4 and Regions 2 and 3 stay consistent. I would be interested in seeing how these numbers change from year to year moving forward and see if there will indeed be a balance of power in a few years. As of right now it looks like this years Sophomores and Juniors from Regions 1 and 4 are pretty equal


One could speculate that region 4's freshmen had a hard time making it to the state tournament because they were in the toughest region, thus the freshmen % would be low. On the other hand, it is possible that region 1's freshmen benefited by not having to deal with South and PHS in the regional qualification process. The analysis will become more interesting after the 2018 season completes. Schools like South and PHS more than likely will continue to lead the packs, thus keeping region 4 strong.

Bearhugger
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Joined: Tue Dec 25, 2012 12:14 am

Re: Strength of Regions AAA. Crunched the numbers

Postby Bearhugger » Mon Oct 09, 2017 4:43 pm

mscoach4 wrote:If you look at points scored by region at the AAA 2017 state tourney
region 4 = 761.5 points
region 1 = 394.5 points
region 3 = 328 points
region 2 = 231 points


These metrics clearly show the imbalance of the AAA regions. I see it being basically the same way in 2018 except it is possible that region 2 outscores region 3.

Region 2 was the weakest region last season. Region 2 has an army of qualifiers due back. Region 3 lost a returning state champ that is traditionally good for 30 points at the state tournament. That wrestler and his 30 points will be in region 4 this season.

greencrush
Posts: 166
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 8:17 pm

Re: Strength of Regions AAA. Crunched the numbers

Postby greencrush » Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:07 pm

mscoach4 wrote:If you look at points scored by region at the AAA 2017 state tourney
region 4 = 761.5 points
region 1 = 394.5 points
region 3 = 328 points
region 2 = 231 points

Looks like region 1 and region 3 are about (almost) equal. Region 2 is the real weak link, while region 4 is obnoxiously strong. AAA Region 2 never recovered after losing the Marion county schools.

KDunbar
Posts: 127
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2012 9:39 pm

Re: Strength of Regions AAA. Crunched the numbers

Postby KDunbar » Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:03 am

I too am a data junkie and I'm afraid Bearhugger's observation regarding the % of seniors and juniors in region 4 compared to region 1 probably negates the observations you are attempting to make. Those inequalities between regions 1 and 4 would likely not allow a valid comparison along these lines when statistical analysis would be applied to the data. However, that doesn't mean your predictions of the possible trend might not occur. I don't feel like doing the research, but a question along these lines would be how many sophomores and freshmen from each region were able to get the chance to compete at the state tournament. Still, the inequality between both the number and quality of senior and junior competitors of the various regions would not allow a valid comparison of even that data. Time is probably the only answer. However, down the road in a couple years, the incoming freshmen and sophomores after the current ones move up will play a role in all the outcomes. At least that's how I would interpret things.

mscoach4
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Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2012 4:00 pm

Re: Strength of Regions AAA. Crunched the numbers

Postby mscoach4 » Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:01 am

My thought is that 9th & 10th grade wrestlers have a harder time breaking into the line up on strong teams in tough regions and hopefully working hard to be ready for their time to shine.

ZZChooseTop
Posts: 182
Joined: Mon Dec 08, 2014 12:01 am

Re: Strength of Regions AAA. Crunched the numbers

Postby ZZChooseTop » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:49 am

I agree with Mr. Carmen. People made fun of me and said that I was just trying to get the South people riled when I said that defending ovac duals champion John Marshall will be a dominating force again this year. Wheeling Park is already loaded from top to bottom and with the addition of their super freshmen and returning injured wrestlers is a good pick to win the state tournament. As long as University can keep there defending coach of the year they are always going to be a powerhouse. Morgantown is building with a coach that now has a year under his belt. Brooke is always good for a few high placers. Doc Miller's Preston Knights has a sleeper state champion that no one is talking about but will be in February. Buck Ups lost many seniors but will still have some qualify for state.

The only thing I disagree with Mr. Carmen about is he thinks it will take 2 years for Region 1 to show its superiority. I think it happens this year.

Bearhugger
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Joined: Tue Dec 25, 2012 12:14 am

Re: Strength of Regions AAA. Crunched the numbers

Postby Bearhugger » Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:20 pm

ZZChooseTop wrote:I agree with Mr. Carmen. People made fun of me and said that I was just trying to get the South people riled when I said that defending ovac duals champion John Marshall will be a dominating force again this year. Wheeling Park is already loaded from top to bottom and with the addition of their super freshmen and returning injured wrestlers is a good pick to win the state tournament. As long as University can keep there defending coach of the year they are always going to be a powerhouse. Morgantown is building with a coach that now has a year under his belt. Brooke is always good for a few high placers. Doc Miller's Preston Knights has a sleeper state champion that no one is talking about but will be in February. Buck Ups lost many seniors but will still have some qualify for state.

The only thing I disagree with Mr. Carmen about is he thinks it will take 2 years for Region 1 to show its superiority. I think it happens this year.


Wheeling Park will be strong and I am glad to see them and other schools make a comeback. I do not see them coming within 50 points of South.

As for Preston County, they should have a larger kid back this season who missed last season. He should make some noise.

vortexfan
Posts: 278
Joined: Sun Feb 28, 2016 8:48 pm

Re: Strength of Regions AAA. Crunched the numbers

Postby vortexfan » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:39 pm

ZZChooseTop wrote:I agree with Mr. Carmen. People made fun of me and said that I was just trying to get the South people riled when I said that defending ovac duals champion John Marshall will be a dominating force again this year. Wheeling Park is already loaded from top to bottom and with the addition of their super freshmen and returning injured wrestlers is a good pick to win the state tournament. As long as University can keep there defending coach of the year they are always going to be a powerhouse. Morgantown is building with a coach that now has a year under his belt. Brooke is always good for a few high placers. Doc Miller's Preston Knights has a sleeper state champion that no one is talking about but will be in February. Buck Ups lost many seniors but will still have some qualify for state.

The only thing I disagree with Mr. Carmen about is he thinks it will take 2 years for Region 1 to show its superiority. I think it happens this year.


In a two region format wouldn’t that make some of these Region 1 teams more competitive for the state team title, by being able to possibly qualify more wrestlers to the big dance. South and PHS will have their strong numbers qualify each year don’t understand why more folks are not for the two region format?

KDunbar
Posts: 127
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2012 9:39 pm

Re: Strength of Regions AAA. Crunched the numbers

Postby KDunbar » Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:09 am

Two points I would make:
1) For accuracy sake and for the benefit of some other teams in the OVAC, John Marshall was the 5A dual champion in the OVAC, not the OVAC dual champion.
2) Sending more wrestlers to the state tournament because they are 7th or 8th in a two region format who then are 2 and out or win a consolation match doesn't add up to very many teams points. If they were 5th in a 4 region format it is not likely they are going to place or score many points in the six place format used at the states. The idea has been that they may "deserve" to go more than some other wrestler from a weaker region. I think it may be carrying it to far to imply they would have much influence on the outcomes of team races.

Truesouthfaninhunt
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Re: Strength of Regions AAA. Crunched the numbers

Postby Truesouthfaninhunt » Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:36 pm

South will win by at least 100 pts... I deducted this, not by staistical anlysis but by a much more proven method.
I simply called " truesouthfaninparkersburg" and axed him.
Saves a lot of time.

KDunbar
Posts: 127
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2012 9:39 pm

Re: Strength of Regions AAA. Crunched the numbers

Postby KDunbar » Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:15 pm

I'm guessing that when ZZChooseTop says Region 1 shows its superiority this year he is speaking in terms of the number of wrestlers overall placing at the state tournament compared to other regions and not having the superior team. Time will tell.


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